Technological trajectories of the mobile telephone industry: a prospective analysis of emergent technologies

摘要

The mobile phone industry has undergone important changes in recent years. Its market structure and boundaries have been affected by the introduction of innovations of new entrants to the industry, who have come from other sectors of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) complex. This paper aims to describe this process, by analyzing three features of this industry: (i) its technological trajectory; (ii) the development and introduction of new technologies; and (iii) the positioning of new players in the international production of knowledge. In doing so, the literature on innovations in the telecommunications industry will be drawn upon to identify, describe and evaluate relevant players and promising technologies. Having designed the sample of firms and technologies, some aspects of the new technologies selected are presented, followed by a bibliometric analysis of three of them - internet protocol (IPv6), wireless connection (802.11n) and near field communications (NFC). Besides claiming our proposed methodology as a valuable tool for technological foresight, the findings point to two main conclusions. First, the opportunities created by the introduction of new trajectories unleashed a process of digital convergence within the mobile phone industry, and allowed the entry of new firms into it. This process is changing the market structure of the industry, changing strategies and performance of its incumbents and leaders and blurring the boundaries of markets within the ICT complex. Secondly, it seems that these developments are making it possible for American corporations to regain their lost technological hegemony over the industry and Asia appears to be emerging as a definitive player in the production of relevant scientific and technological knowledge in these fields.